Eqypt – instability ahead

A s I have predicted earlier, Mubarak has been swept away by the recent waves of mass public demonstration that take place in the Arab world. Mubarak was the front man for the military, when he became the president following the killing of Anwar Sadat back in 1981. He is finally ditched away by the military and his US backer because  he has  become a political liability. There is much rejoice and celebrations in many parts of the Arab world, with many seeing this incident (his resignation) as the beginning of the Arab democratic revolution,  to reclaim the power for the people from the tyranny of the autocratic rulers that typified almost all Arab nations.

Getting Mubarak to step down is the rather easy step, I reckon. The conditions are ripe, given that people are unhappy about rising prices and high unemployment.  It has become a lot easier to   mobilise public anger  nowadays , given the availability of internet social networking tools like Facebook and Twitter.   In fact a number of these organisers have been trained in the US in the use of such technologies to ferment revolution.

The current Pentagon scenario for Egypt reads like a Cecil B. DeMille Hollywood spectacular, only this one with a cast of millions of Twitter-savvy well-trained youth, networks of Muslim Brotherhood operatives, working with a US-trained military. In the starring role of the new production at the moment is none other than a Nobel Peace Prize winner who conveniently appears to pull all the threads of opposition to the ancien regime into what appears as a seamless transition into a New Egypt under a self-proclaimed liberal democratic revolution.

–           William Engdahl’s   5/2/11

Why would US want to bring down Mubarak, after all he is friendly to US and Israel.  First, Mubarak  is highly unpopular in the Arab world,  having outlived his usefulness and  thus become a political liability.  Moreover  he opposed certain aspects of US Middle East strategy, particularly on the question of Iran.   When the right opportunity arrives, the US has no qualm in ditching him, in the grand quest to reshape and control the region. It is part of a grand strategy to snuff out the treat of Islamic civilization by transplanting the ‘Western liberal values’ in the region.  It is a very tall task, but many in the  US thinks they could do it, given that US  has at its disposal hundreds or even thousands of ‘democracy’ activists using the internet social networking sites to influence public opinions (particularly the younger generations)  in the Arab world. We live in interesting times, and many Arab regimes will be watching over the internet nervously for signs of agitations.

The US and the West  will be pre-occupied with Egypt and Middle East for sometimes. This will gives China and Russia a certain breathing space to counter the onslaught by US led internet activists, media and foreign meddling.   Already, the China bashers in the Australian media like Peter Hartcher, John Garnaut etc, are already making the preparation for China.  However, China will certaintly be much more difficult nut to crack, given that the Internet is controlled by Chinese government, the fact that the economy is growing rapidly and the government is responsive to aspirations of the people. However, governing China wisely and meeting the aspirations and well-beings of the Chinese people have never become easier in increasingly complex and inter-twined world of ours.  Thus, China must not take the current favourable environment for granted.

With  Mubarak  toppled, the military is in total control. General election is promised six months latter. In the meanwhile a new constitution and new election commission are to be established. This is the difficult process, as it involves many parties with conflicting interests.  The big players will be the US led internet activists and other democracy activists, the well organised Muslim Brotherhood party and the military generals.  Will they be able to come to agreements on constitution and election rules etc?  I think it will depend mainly on the generals.  The senior generals are unlikely to give up powers easily, given that the military has tentacles in every aspect of the government administration and businesses.  The middle ranking and lower officers however might be different, and perhaps only a coup could dislodge the senior generals. Thus, the road ahead is dangerous and winding. US have made a big gamble, and hopefully history will not repeat itself, just like US involvement in Iraq.


About kchew

an occasional culturalist
This entry was posted in Africa and China, News and politics. Bookmark the permalink.

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