Dr Chan newsletter for October

曾渊沧@股友通讯录
2010 年10 月份

各位朋友,
9月份的股市的确升势很强, 海指一举升上3100 点之上,不但创下今年新高,也创下金融海啸以来的新高,这一切得归功於美股,美股在9月份的表现非常好,带动本地股市向上。

Dear Friends
Thanks to the good performance of US stocks in September, STI index propelled to above 3,100 points, this
year and post financial tsunmai’s new high.

在上一期的通讯,我己经提醒大家:9 月1 日,美国总统宣布伊拉克战争结束,美军将完全撤退,这说明奥巴马正全力以赴,为民主党争取11 月国会选举的好成绩,希望很快地联储局能推出真正的「量化宽松」政策。结果,市场就是因为期待这「量化宽松」政策而一升再升,奥巴马的竞选工作开始了。比他的上一任布什总统早一个月。2002 年,美国经济也一样差,那是 2000 年资讯科技泡沫爆发所留下来的后遗症,但是,2002 年10 月,美股就大幅回升,因为当时布什与格林斯潘同时出重手挽救往下沉的经济,结果,2004 年美国总统选举,布什顺利连任。奥巴马提早发功,因为目前美国的经济形势比2002 年更险峻,发功迟了,就会像老布什一样,被克林顿赶出白宫,美国总统仅当一任的少,能连任的多,能连任的原因就是他们懂得在适当的时候印钞票。美国很快地就要大印钞票了。

In my last letter, I reminded all of you the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq indicated President Obama was
doing all he could to win the forthcoming November mid-term Congress election for Democrats. Hopefully, the Fed
would roll out the quantitative easing monetary policy to enhance Obama’s winning prospect. Expectation of the
release of the quantitative easing monetary policy pushed the stock market forward. Obama worked on his plan one
month earlier than his predecessor George Bush Jr.did.

In the aftermath of 2000’s IT bubble burst, US economy in 2002 was just as bad. In October 2002 however, US
market recovered sharply as a result of the drastic measures taken by President Bush and the Fed Chairman Greenspan
to rescue the then sinking economy.And Bush was re-elected in 2004 for his efforts.
Obama executes his plan earlier because the current economic situation is even worse than in 2002.If he
executes his plan too late, he might be booted out of the White House, like Clinton did to George Bush Sr.In US, two
term presidents outnumber single term presidents; candidates who know when to print currency notes get re-elected
for the 2nd term.US is going to print large quantity of currency notes.

因为市场估计美国很快就要大印钞票,新加坡元的汇率一升再升,不断地创历史新高价。新加坡元的汇率上升吸引了大量外资前来炒作。炒作什么? 炒作持有最多新加坡元的企业股票。这就是银行股。因此我相当看好银行股.
今年国庆,李总理告诉大家: 新加坡生产的海上钻油台占世界市场的70%,前一阵子,美国墨西哥湾海上钻
油出现漏油事故,全球钻油工作放慢,现在应该恢复,生产商的股票也可以留意。

Expectation of US forthcoming note printing propels S$ exchange rate to keep rising to new record high,
attracting the influx of foreign capital to the stock market.
You may ask: What stocks shall we buy? Buy stocks of corporations holding large quantities of S$: bank
stocks.Prime Minister Lee Xian Long in his National Day rally speech said that 70% of the world ’ s oil drill
stations are built in Singapore.Not long ago, the incident of oilleak in Bay of Mexico slowed down the oil drill
operations. Now oil drilling should be back to normal; we can take note of the industry which builds oil drill
stations.

2001 年的911 改变了美国对外战略,布什倾全力对付伊拉克、回教恐怖分子…造就了中国的黄金 9 年。今年 9 月1 日,奥巴马宣布从伊拉克撤军,从此美国的头号假想敌不再是回教恐怖分子,而是GDP 全球排第二的中国。

日本扣留前往钓鱼台岛捕鱼的中国渔船船长,大家焦点都集中在中日关系上。我认为真正在背后操纵日本的是美国,没有美国做后台,日本是恶不起来。美国总统奥巴马更会趁联合国大会,召集亚细安十国首长召开高峰会议,其中一个议题就是南海问题。

The attack on World Trade Centre on September 11 2001 changed the US war strategy. George Bush Jr. went all out to attack Iraq and hunt down Muslim terrorists. China was able to enjoy a period of 9 golden (prosperous) years. On September 01 this year, Obama announced the withdrawal of troops from Iraq; from now on, US’s no.1 hypothetical enemy is no longer the Muslim terrorists. It will be China, the country with the 2nd largest GDP in the world.

Everybody focused on the China/Japan relationship issue when Japan detained the captain of the Chinesefishing boat near Diaoyu Islands. I reckon US is behind Japan’s action.Without US backing, Japan would not have dared to detain Chinese fishing boat. Obama may use UN meeting to call for a submit meeting of 10 Asean countires.One of the agenda for discussion will be South Sea issue.

亚细安有数个国家都自称拥有南海一些小岛的主权,也派兵占领这些岛屿,但是亚细安这些国家毕竟是小国,如果中国真的派军队驱赶亚细安国家出南海,亚细安小国当然不是对手,现在美国就利用这个机会拉拢亚细安,为亚细安这些与中国有领土纠纷的小国撑腰,从钓鱼台岛到南海诸岛,都涉及美国的利益,美国国务卿希拉莉已经公开地说「美国关注南海问题,因为这影响美国利益。

在外交事务上,美国推动日本、亚细安与中国为敌;对内,则利用民主党众议员立法,宣称中国操纵人民币汇率,美国仍须向中国所有的货品徵收关税以保护美国工业……
当年,美国认为自由贸易对美国有利,因为美国认为自己的竞争力很强,但是为了争取大量失业者的选票,奥巴马及民主党不得不把美国的失业问题归罪於中国的廉价货品。人民币将长期成为中美政治外交角力的工具,虽然中国领导层口口声声说不会屈服於国际压力,事实上每逢美国一加压,人民币的币值就创一次新高,美国的声音较弱时,人民币汇率就暂时回软。

There are few Asean countries that lay sovereign rights claim on some South Sea Islands, and send troopsthereto. These small Asean countries are no match to China if China were to send troops to chase these Asean countries off the islands. US now seizes the opportunity to befriend and support these Asean countries that have territory disputes with China, as US has interests from Diaoyu Island to South Sea Islands. US Secretary of States Hilary Clinton has publicly declared:”US is concerned with South Sea issue as it affects the US interests”.

In its foreign affairs, US instigate Japan and Asean countries against China. On the home front, Democratic congressmen pass legislatures accusing China for manipulating exchange rate, and therefore US must impose levies on
allimported Chinese products to protect US industries.
Once before, US thought free trades would benefit her, believing she had the competitive edge.Now,in order to capture the votes of unemployed, Obama and the Democratic Party have to blame the cheap Chinese products for US high unemployment rate. RMB will become the long term political tussle between China and the US. On the other hand,
although Chinese leaders kept saying they would not succumb under international pressure, in actual fact, the moment
US exerted pressure on the issue, RMB would appreciate to record high, amd when US relented, RMB would weaken.

9月初,当中国高调地宣布已大幅度减低美元储备后,人民币升值条件加强,过去中国政府的外汇储备,几乎全是美元,若美元兑人民币大幅贬值,中国政府手持的美元就亏大本。今年中国政府应该多谢美国对冲基金狙击欧元,使到中国政府有机会趁低买入欧元及其他货币,降低美元的比重,美元比重减低后,美元兑人民币贬值所产生的压力就下降。当然,目前希望买人民币赚升值并不是最好的投资方法,人民币会升值,但不容易大升,中国政府会永远记着当年日元升值所带来的灾难。

马来西亚中央银行买入人民币债券,这是人民币走向世界的另一个里程碑,人民币开始成为外国央行的储备货币,只要中国政府愿意发行,人民币国库债券肯定会成为全球各国央行的重要储备货币。

也许新加坡的银行也应该发展人民币岸外交易。

In early September, after China emphatically announced she had greatly reduced her US$ reserve, RMB strengthened. Almost all the foreign reserve of China was in US$. If US$ were to devalue against RMB, China would suffer heavy losses.Thanks to US hedge funds ’ predatory prey on Euro, China seized the opportunity to buy the devalued Euro and other currencies, and reduced the US$ weighting in her foreign reserve. It followed that the pressure on US$ due to the low exchange rate of RMB vis-à-vis US$ was reduced. At present, it is not the best
investment strategy to invest in RMB.RMB will appreciate, but at a slow pace. China will always bear in mind how Japan has suffered since yen’s appreciation.

The Central Bank of Malaysia has bought RMB denominated bonds. It is the watershed for RMB to become the reserve currency of foreign central banks. If China is willing, RMB denominated treasury bills will become an important reserve currency of all the countries in the world.
May be Singapore should develop RMB off shore trading.

04 October 2010

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About kchew

an occasional culturalist
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