Reading Chinese – Dr Chan’s June newsletter

I am a fan of Dr Chan writings, and look forward to his monthly newsletter. Reading his newsletter is quite an exercise in Chinese reading as he uses considerable proverbs and simile. Nevertheless it is worth the effort. The English translation is provided in his newsletter. In reading both version, I can feel thatmuch of the nuances are lost when writing is translated, even by the author himself.

 

在上个月的通信中,我说我相当担心美股在欧元区出了事仍然不断创新高,实有高处

不胜寒的感觉。结果,上个月美股终於出现了调整,调整幅度也不小,导至新加坡股市也跟着

下跌。  

欧元已经从1 欧元兑1.6 美元贬值1 欧元1.2 美元,这对美国也不是好事。欧元区

出问题时,美国开始时是很高兴,兴灾乐祸,因为过去两年,美国大量印钞票导至美元贬值,

一些国家的外汇储备开始增持欧元。

[bian3 zhi2 – depreciate ; dui4 – exchange ;xing4 zai le4 huo4 – gloat over rival’s misfortune; wai4 hui4 chu3 bei4 – foreign exchange]

   

美国也担心欧元会取代美元的地位。因此,欧元贬值美国是高兴的,这可以向全世界表示美元依然是全世界最强的货币。不过,欧元大幅贬值已经为欧洲的出口带来好处。上个月欧洲出口急增,因此,美国也不会任由欧元长时间大幅贬值,这最终会危害美国的经济。

[qu3dai4 – replace ; dafu2 – substantial ; ren4you2 – allow ; wei hai4 – endanger ]

   

因此,我估计在必要时,美国也会出手扶持欧元汇率,如果美欧联手,

那么对冲基金、国际大鳄就不可能战胜美欧政府。

[fu2 chi2 – assist ; da e2 – big crocodile (speculator) ]

   

希腊出了问题,西班牙也出了问题,主权评级被降低,相信接二连三地,其他南欧国

家都会出问题,因此目前的策略应该仍以观望为主,不要轻举妄动

[zhu3 quan2 ping2 ji – sovereign rating ; ce4 lue4 – tactic ; guan wang4 wei2 zhu3 – watch from sidelines ; qing ju3 wang4 dong – act in haste]

   

现在是考验投资者耐性的最重要时刻。牛市未死,但是调整则不可避免。我曾经说

过,中国政府打压房地产价格的决心是必然的,措施也越来越强硬,再加上传媒的炒作,可真

风声草动草木皆兵了。

[cuo4 shi4 – measure taken ; chao3 zuo4 – hype ; feng sheng cao3 dong4 – grass bend at sound of wind ; cao3 mu4 jie bing – in every bush is a soldier (become jittery) ]

   

不利消息一再传出,上海综合指数也一度跌破2600 点,这是一个

重要的指标,因为去年中上海综合指数就是在这个水平反弹,这表示这个水平曾经有很大的支

持力,大量新加坡上市企业在中国投资,影响不小。除了欧元区的问题外,南韩北朝鲜的紧张状态也是上个月第一天股市大幅下跌的原因之一。

[ fan3 tan3 – reboounce ; jin3 zhang zhuang4 tai4 – tense situation ] 

   

南韩北朝鲜的问题是值得关注。南韩说北朝鲜用鱼雷击沉其战舰「天安」号,

大有兴师问罪之意。战争的阴影出现了,但是我还是觉得真正大战的机会不大,因为

中美俄皆不想打。中美俄不打,南韩北朝鲜无力打。

[ yu2 lei2 – torpedo; xing shi wn4 zui4 – send punitive forces against ; yin ying – shaodow (tragic experience) ]

   

天安号被沉是一段时间之前的事,开始时美国与南韩政府皆一口咬定与北朝

鲜无关,了一段时间之后,选择在美国国务卿希拉莉访问中国,中国总理访问南韩

与日本之时说是北朝鲜所为,目的只是想借此中国政府支持制裁北朝鲜。

[zha4 – explode ; yi kou2 yao3 ding – allege (arbitrary assertion); tuo – drag on /delay ; guo2 wu4 qing – secretary of state ; bi4 – compel ; zhi4 cai2 – sanction ]

   

美国政府正在进行金融改革,是祸是福仍为未知道。为了改革,美国政府正在

不断地向金融机构施压,什至将其告上法院,这也会不断地制造一些打击股市的事

件。美国政府自认美股也已经上升不错,有本钱受一些打击,但搞个不好,发生股灾

就麻烦。

[shi ya – pressure ]

English translation by Dr Chan:

In my newsletter last month, I said I was concerned over US stocks kept

rising in spite of troubles in Euro zone, and had the ‘chill at the top 高处不胜寒

feeling. US stocks eventually took some beating, pushing down Singapore market as

well.

 

Euro has dropped from 1:1.6 to 1:1.2 US$. The devaluation of Euro is not

good to US either. When Euro zone started having troubles, US was happy at first,

as US$ had devalued as a result of printing voluminous currency notes during the

past 2 years. Some countries’ foreign reserve began to accumulate Euro, an act

which made US to worry Euro might replace US$ as the world curreny. Therefore US

was happy when Euro devalued as US$ would still be the strongest currency in the

world. However, the devaluation of Euro has benefited Europe whose exports rose

rapidly last month. Thus, US will not let Euro freefall too long to jeopardise US

economy. I think US will support Euro exchange rate when necessary, and if this

happens hedge funds and international crocodiles cannot match the combined force

of Europe/US governments.

 

Both Greece and Spain have problems; their sovereign bonds have been

downgraded. I believe other southern European countries would have problems too.

Right now, do not do anything in haste, sideline and monitor the trend for the time

being.

 

Now is the time to test investors’ patience. Bull market is still going on, but

market adjustments are unavoidable. I have said that China’s determination to clamp

down property prices is inevitable, and the measures to underpin property prices are

getting harsher and harsher. Fanned by the media, the situation has become so

precarious that a slight shift of the market trend may make investors feel jittery. I may

even use two Chinese idioms 「风声草东,草木皆兵」(literary means: the sound

of wind bends the grass, every bud taken for a bugbearto describe the situation.

Shanghai composite index at one time dropped below the important benchmark

2600 point at which the Shanghai composite index rebounded last year. It shows at

this level there had been strong supports. There are many Singapore listed

companies’ investments in China, their influences are by no means small.

Beside Euro zone problems the tension on the Korean Peninsula also sent

the market into a tailspin on the first day of last month.

 

It is worthwhile to take note of the North/South Korea issue. South Korea

said its warship ‘Tianan’ was sunk by North Korea’s torpedo, and would retaliate with

war measures. However I believe a conflict of war is unlikely, as China, USA and

Russia are not willing to start a war, and so North/South Koreas are unable to start a

war.

 

The sinking of warship ‘Tianan’ was awhile ago. At first USA and South

Korea said the incident had nothing to do with North Korea. When US Secretary of

State Hilary Clinton visited China and Chinese Premier visited South Korea and

Japan, ‘Tianan’ was then said to have been sunk by North Korea. The timely

accusation is to press China to sanction North Korea.

 

US Government is revamping its financial systems; how benefitial or

harmful is yet to be seen. US Government keeps pressing financial organisations,

even brings them to court. These measures may affect the stock markets. US

Government thinks US stocks have gone up high enough to take some beating. If

the revamping process is not properly done, stock markets may face some tricky

problems.

04/06/2010

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About kchew

an occasional culturalist
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