不买人家债券,我们手里的绿票子有别的出路吗?有。

Found this article from Caijing Magazine website.
Excerpt …
 
这些研究诚然是重要的。不过,在我看来,更为基本的是,这次金融危机,使我们学到了一些值得记一辈子的经济学基本原理。这些原理,其实多数没上过学的老百姓都懂,只是社会精英们,特别是我们这些经济学家,基本上忘光了。其中,有两条原理特别重要:
  一、挣一块花两块是长不了的;
  二、向别人借钱早晚是要还的。
  从这两条原理中,还可以得到若干重要推论:
  1.再好的印刷机也印不出财富来;
  2.不事生产,靠金融创新创造的数字财富,不是真实的财富;
  3.借新债补旧债,只会越欠越多,不会越欠越少;
  4.有人说,他欠债破产,罪魁祸首是你存钱太多、借给他太多,你应该同意他的观点
  5.如果有人再问你借钱,保证将来用印刷机多印一些绿纸片还你,千万捂紧你的钱包。

 

多年来,美国仗着美元是全球储备货币的地位,放任信贷膨胀和大规模负债,促进了本国消费超前发展。按索罗斯的说法,这种信贷扩张泡沫带来的超级繁荣已持续了60年,今天才走到尽头。2007年,美国最终消费高达GDP86%,净储蓄率为-1.7%,贸易逆差占GDP5%2008年,美国居民、政府和非金融企业的未偿还债务合计高达33万亿美元,是GDP2.3倍;折合人均负债11万美元,把自己儿子的钱都花了。
  与美国不同,中国的净储蓄率达43%,而且,已经存了2万亿美元的外汇储备。这是一笔巨大的财富,是13亿人起早摸黑、流血流汗挣来的。这笔钱可以增加我们的福利,可以用来保障我们未来的发展。但这笔钱安全吗?

… (translated version)

this financial crisis at least taught us some basic economic principles worth keeping in mind. These principles are well grasped even among uneducated people, but our elites, especially we economists, have almost forgotten them.

 

1.      It is not sustainable to spend twice what you earn.

2.      Eventually you’ll have to pay what you owe.

 

From these two principles follow several deductions:

1.      Even the best printing machines cannot print wealth, although they may churn out new notes.

2.      If someone asks you for a loan and promises he will print money to pay you, hold tight to your wallet.

3.      It’s also up to you as a lender to realize that if you hand out too much cash, borrowers will have to default.

4.      Moreover, refinancing can drive debts higher. Without a solid base of production, financial innovations can only create numbers, not real wealth.

 

The U.S. takes advantage of the dollar standard, ignoring credit expansion and massive debt, to enhance domestic consumption levels that have outpaces incomes for years. According to George Soros, the prosperity from the credit bubble lasted for 60 years and has just come to an end.

 

In 2007, consumption accounted for 86 percent of the U.S. GDP; the ratio of net savings to disposable income was negative 1.7 percent; while the trade deficit equaled 5 percent of GDP. In 2008, the debts owed by the U.S. citizens, governments and non-financial businesses amounted to US$ 33 trillion, 2.3 times the GDP. If you spread that figure out over the entire population, including the young generation, each U.S. citizen bore a debt of US$ 110,000.

 

Unlike the U.S., the net savings ratio in China is 43 percent. China has a foreign exchange reserve of 2 trillion dollars. This sizable fortune came from the hard work of 1.3 billion Chinese. With this money, we can improve our social welfare and secure our development. But is this foreign exchange reserve secure wealth?

 

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About kchew

an occasional culturalist
This entry was posted in Economy and business. Bookmark the permalink.

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